How will the unrest affect the countries of the Middle East? Lebanon.

A short synopsis.

Lebanon:

If any one country is going to have more influences imposed upon it by countries that are embroiled  in strife (read Syria), then it's Lebanon. The Lebanese Government is in stasis and Hezbollah is holding the reigns of the march 8th block, and we all know that they don't move without the backing of Iran and Syria. The situation in the south will become increasingly bad as Syria tries to show the world that there can be no quiet in the area without an Assad regime. So for Lebanon the dangers are twofold, to the governmental institutions and to the security of the south and from that the wider country if a conflict breaks out, Be it against the infiltrators(Palestinians) or Hezbollah, who are  aiding and abetting them. A similar situation set the boarders alight in 1982, it is as if lessons are not being learnt. If there is one country where hot conflict is likely it is here. The Lebanese are again being used by forces that have nothing in interest with Lebanese peace and security. These forces are aided and abetted by states who are using the country and the actors (see Hezbollah) to their own ends.

Recent examples of the foreign intervention can be seen in the bombing of Italian UN troops in the south, and the Hezbollah aided riots/demonstrations from Nabka day along the Israeli border. So For the Lebanese, the change will not necessarily bring about a positives. It might change the balance of power in the country vis-a-vis Hezbollah, with its weakening with the possible fall of the Assad regime in Syria, but that in itself might push Hezbollah to act more aggressively and take a millenarian decision to attack not just Israel but its enemies within the state. So we could be looking at another civil war or a very destructive war with Israel. Both will tear apart any consensus within Lebanon, there will be a need of a new Taif accord, but there is no one to implement that on the players of Lebanon's consensual accord, as the US has all but withdrawn its support from any players in the area.

So if Assad stays in power then Lebanon can feel that the future for the short term will be quiet, as there will be no movement on the issues of government and thus the blocking status-quo will ensue, but this could lead to Hezbollah pushing for a position that they might feel entitled to at the moment but which they would not merit without Syrian support. That means a possible civil or cross border conflict. But if Syria falls to the anti-Assad protesters, then that could tear the society of Lebanon apart. Underlying problems of the consensual agitation could erupt and cause great harm to the population and infrastructure, harming the country in a greater way than the previous civil war. Either by civil or national conflict. The X-factor in all this is Hezbollah, and how they would react to the weakening and/or loss of their patron Syria.

So all in all, the future of Lebanon is at stake as one of the most delicate and perverse of all countries in the area, and it is one of the few that isn't touched by any popular civil uprisings. A country that is always the victim of the perverse use of powers by other entities rather than its own doing.