How will the unrest affect the countries of the Middle East? Syria.

Syria possesses a dying regime and one can see the vultures circling over the soon to be carcass of the Assad legacy. Syria has for many years been a pivotal player in the state of the Middle East, generally in a negative way. For many countries bordering Syria there is much unease at the on-going protests and tensions, as many have minorities and or interests bound up with Alawi rule.

But the fact of the matter is that Syria as it is will be gone forever. The regime is fighting for its life, and depending on how far it is willing to go in suppressing its own people, this will dictate the outcome. If the regime and Assad's decide not to back down, then be prepared to see mass bloodshed on a scale not seen previously in these uprisings. The regime is well known for its brutality, but this is something rarely reported on in the West. So the Assad's and their lackeys are hoping that a bout of strong repression (everyone has a breaking point) and manipulating their position as a mediator between various neighbours and on-going disputes will get them out of jail free.

So expect to see the promises of Rami Makhlouf, a scion of the regime, come true. Syria will destabilise the borders with Israel, trying to force a serious incident that it can use to turn the peoples anger away from the regime. Expect it to allow the Kurds to continue to use its territory to base attacks against Turkey, excusing itself via the excuse of anarchy due to lack of Turkish support, when all the time it can easily turn off any tap of violence. It can still send Islamic extremists over the border with Iraq as it has been doing since he end of the Gulf war, agitating and annoying American plans for a stable and prosperous Iraq. Lebanon though will be its main field of action; already its troops are crossing the border to arrest and detain refugees from their dissident police and jails. Hezbollah will also be eager to help out and expect them to show a bit of force along the border with Israel, as they would have a hard time existing without their Syrian supply masters.

The opposition is not organised and there is no sure way of saying what type of regime, democratic/theocratic or other will come out of this mess to replace the Assad regime, but even this isn't a given. This is where Syria’s' neighbours need to step in and support the movement for change, as it would benefit them all, and the West needs to realise that keeping Assad in power is untenable, it will only lead to greater insecurity in the area and more misery for his subjects.