Thursday, 2 June 2011

How will the unrest affect the countries of the Middle East? Turkey.

Of all countries in the area Turkey has the most to gain, yet if it doesn't play her cards right has just as much to lose. For the last few years the Turkish government has been slowly re-aligning itself away from the West and focusing more on being a hegemon in the local area and less seeking entry to Europe. It has conciliated itself with the Iranian regime and has given support to and conciliated with Assad's Syria before the uprising. It has also cut the military co-operation with Israel, slowly becoming more aligned with the Arab nations, where it sees its new influence lying.

Yet its approach to the unrest has been piecemeal and contradictory, it is obviously playing to the tropes of its population and national interests. As can be seen in its early support of the Qaddafi regime, in Libya where there is a huge number of Turks working and sending important remittance money into the Turkish economy. Yet when it came to Egypt it was happy to see the back of Mubarak, knowing that he was the only Arab leader who could reject their approaches to being a reincarnation of the Ottoman empire.

but of all the areas and countries that hold interest to Turkey, it is Syrian unrest that worries the Erdogan government the most, the potential for mass refugees flooding into Southern Turkey is enough for the military to start taking matters into their own hands, showing the fluidity of the situation:

Robert Fisk wrote in the London Independent on May 30 that Turkey fears a mass influx of Syrian Kurdish refugees, so that "Turkish generals have thus prepared an operation that would send several battalions of Turkish troops into Syria itself to carve out a 'safe area' for Syrian refugees inside Assad's caliphate." The borders of the affected nations have begun to dissolve along with their economies. It will get worse fast.

The Turks at first were supportive of the Assad regime against the uprisings, but with the reaction of the West it has been forced to accept a fait accomplis with possible change across the border. But that will not stop Turkey implanting its authority in Syria, and playing a major role in shaping the next government there. They are about the only ones who can influence the Syrians, there is no faith in the West or US within the country, and the inaction and slowness of the European and US to changes on the ground preclude any major role for them with the new government, thus playing into the hands of the Turks. So with a Kurdish problem emanating from Syria, Turkey will hope to impose on Syria what the West stopped them doing in Iraq, and setting up their zones of influence. This influence could indeed stretch all the was to Damascus and a very strong Kingmaker role in the next government of Syria, though they would not be averse to Assad staying in power, as by that time his international standing would be so low, that he would be forced to answer the beck and call of The Turks and implement their strategy.

This is what they have to gain, but depending on the outcome of the unrest it could be short-lived and ephemeral. But it seems that they are well on their way to fulfilling their dreams as a Middle Eastern Hegemon, fighting the likes of Iran,the US and Saudi Arabia for influence of the masses in newly failing states.

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