How will the unrest affect the countries of the Middle East? Palestine.

Of all the Arab countries and people in the area, the Palestinians are about the only group not actively demonstrating in the streets for greater representation and freedoms. The population of the West Bank has been getting increasingly better off, thanks to the reforms implemented by Prime Minister fayed, ( choice of the IMF) and the lack of a continuous uprising against Israel; bringing greater calm, all positive to economic growth, so co-operation and transfer of goods is at an all time high due to the confidence he has engendered. So the West Bank is very placid and looks on as the world around it ignites and changes.

The Gaza Strip on the other hand is where all the changes are happening, and not in small steps, but in dramatic leaps and bounds, this is where the crux of any peace process will live or die at the moment. The situation in Gaza has changed immeasurably due to the crisis in Egypt, once shunned and closed in by the old regime, it has now been welcomed into the Egyptian sphere with open hands from a very religiously oriented country. It should be remembered that Hamas was an off-shoot of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. This opening of the border is a bonus for Hamas as it will allow the easy access of its weapons and money from Iran. This will make Hamas the more powerful of the two groupings within the Palestinian entity.

So it will be seen in the short term that the balance of power in Palestine will swing towards Hamas, as it will get greater help and inducements from its sponsors, and with direct links to Egypt, it will be less reliant on the Israelis to provide services and goods for them. This will be seen as a bonus in the eyes of the population. Once Abbas resigns and elections are held there is only one real winner, as Fatah is viewed as corrupt and the infighting is tearing any solidarity apart. The polity in the West Bank will therefore be up for grabs to the most powerful element, don't be surprised if Israel pushes its own agenda here, by trying to stop a Hamas victory by allowing for a strong man affable to Israel (read Muhammad Dahlan) to take control, and to rule as Arafat and Abbas have for the last few years.

But as yet there is no definites on the election happening, and expect the fractures within Palestinian society to widen as Hamas becomes ever more the hegemonic group in Palestinian discourse. Yet for all their years revolting against Israeli rule, i don't expect the population to rise up and demand changes, there are too many groups and the populations political identities and aims are to diversified to be brought under a single banner (on internal matters). So expect more of the same, and the gap between the West Bank and Gaza growing wider as time passes.