How will the unrest affect the countries of the Middle East? Iran.

The unrest that has occurred in Iran was a precursor to that of the wider Middle East, the demonstrators are asking for essentially the same thing, more freedoms and choice in how the country is run. The regime of the Ayatollahs though has been able to get away with murder and repression due to the weakness of the West, and the US (under Obama in particular); in wanting to confront an aggressive regime with plans for expansion in an area they also have great interests. So in essence Iran has gained from the Arab revolts, due in part to the policy of the US in placing beliefs before national interest. This has led to the rising ascendancy of the Iranian regime at the expense of the US, few people around the Gulf area and banking on the US to help them after what it did to their main ally in the Middle East (Mubarak).

The fall of the house of Egypt has left no one to face down the Iranian’s influence in the area apart from Saudi Arabia, who is desperately creating a new alliance under the Gulf Co-operation Council. This has had some measured success in Bahrain where it was used to dampen Shiite influences demanding a more open and democratic polity, where they would have a greater say in policy. The original grass roots campaign there was not about the Sunni-Shia divide, but since Iranian meddling this has become more and more so.

But while Iranian influence has been growing around the Gulf and Arabian peninsula, the revolts in Syria are potentially going to weaken their most precious  Arab resource, the Assad regime, and with it Hezbollah. The loss of Syria would be a body blow to the ideals of revolution that it has been trying to export to the wider area since its inception in 1979. 

But the main lessons of the Arab revolt and especially any serious changes that will evolve out of it will be seen in its own domestic scene. Iran is a country that can’t afford to feed itself, it is an oil producing country that imports petrol, and the demographics are potentially disastrous for the future, as it will soon have a shrinking population, and all the problems involved with that. A majority of the population have known no other rule than the Ayatollahs, and with things becoming worse off for them by the day, expect them to re-import the revolts that they were integral in exporting to the Arab Middle East, the potential for unrest there is vast and the Government of Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah are busy infighting, so expect the opposition to exact any possible and perceived weaknesses in the structure of the state.