More Demographic speculation.

One of the most contested ideas in the Israel-Palestinian conflict is the supposedly growing Palestinian population, but is this the truth?

A generation from now, the Palestinians will make peace with Israel, for a simple reason: they will grow up - literally. Palestinian Arabs comprise one of the fastest-aging populations in the word.

So this goes against the grain of common belief of the official US position, even Obama stating the problem to incite Israel to peace. But the reality seems to be very different.

In fact, Palestinian fertility on the West Bank has already converged on the Israeli fertility rate of three children per woman, if we believe the Palestine Ministry of Health rather than the Palestine Authority's Statistics Bureau.

Palestine Authority's Statistics Bureau.

There is endless debate about the Palestinian population numbers. Israel's peace party has advanced the "demographic argument" for years, and has been consistently wrong. The decisive data point is that Palestinian Arab fertility has plunged and, in consequence, the Arab population will age rapidly. That augurs well for peace, a generation from now. After three-quarters of a century of warfare, starting with the 1937 Arab uprising against British rule in Palestine, it's not a hardship to wait one more generation.

To some statistics of this kind are an important weapon in the negotiations and therefore we get these varying results from different bureaus:

[The Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics] projected that the number of births in the Territories would total almost 908,000 for the seven-year period from 1997 to 2003. Yet, the actual number of births documented by the PA Ministry of Health for the same period was significantly lower at 699,000, or 238,000 fewer births than had been forecast by the PCBS... The size of the discrepancy accelerated over time. Whereas the PCBS predicted there would be over 143,000 births in 2003, the PA Ministry of Health reported only 102,000 births, which pointed to a PCBS forecast 40% beyond actual results.

Palestinian fertility, report by Statistics Bureau vs Palestine Ministry of Health

Sources: UN Population Division, Begin-Sadat Center

Bearing in mind that the data are unreliable, the age distribution chart below is nonetheless indicative.

Distribution of population in Palestinian Territories by age group, 2010 vs 2040 (projected)

Source: United Nations Population Division

 So this all changes the ideas pushed forward by many trying to push a peace process on either or both countries that both are not quite ready for. In 30 to 40 years this will be different, and the possibility of real reconciliation and peace will be far more tangible, thus:

 There is no urgency to make peace, except in the minds of the Palestinians' present leaders. The world has allowed them to rule a little fiefdom as warlords of private armies, with little accounting for billions in foreign aid, and the opportunity to indulge in a grand ideological tantrum on the tab of Western donors.

So a wait and see approach is probably best observed by most realists on the peace process, you can't force peoples to make peace until they are ready, hopefully in a generation this will be fulfilled.